A paper HERE by Gerd Gigerenzer and Ulrich Hoffrage that argues that natural frequencies are a much better way of presenting, examining and discussing arguments based on Bayes Theorem than other approaches. In the paper, Gigerenzer cites Laplace's assertion that “the theory of probability is at bottom nothing more than good sense reduced to a calculus which evaluates that which good minds know by a sort of instinct, without being able to explain how with precision.”
